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Voya Financial, Inc. (VOYA)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • VOYA delivered a clean beat on both EPS and revenue: adjusted operating EPS of $2.45 vs Wall Street consensus ~$2.25, and total revenue of $2.13B vs ~$2.01B; strength was broad-based across Retirement and Investment Management, while Employee Benefits improved underwriting margins in Stop Loss . Consensus values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Capital generation remained robust (> $200M excess capital in Q3; ~$600M YTD) with an authorized dividend increase to $0.47 (+4%) for Q4 and resumed buybacks including a $100M ASR; repurchase authorization extended through year-end 2026 .
  • Retirement outperformed on OneAmerica integration and higher alternative investment income; Investment Management showed organic growth with $3.9B net inflows; Employee Benefits improved claims experience in Group Life and maintained disciplined Stop Loss underwriting .
  • 2026 setup: management guided to consistent capital returns of $100–$150M per quarter, Retirement margins to the midpoint of its 35–39% target range as it invests in Wealth Management (~$75M spend), and full rollout of leave management on Jan 1, 2026; actively managed ETFs and Blue Owl DC solutions are slated over the next 6–18 months .
  • Near-term stock catalysts: EPS/revenue beat, dividend hike, buyback extension and clear 2026 capital framework; watch Q4 Stop Loss credibility (claims experience doubles for Jan-25 cohort) and execution on WealthPath/advisor hiring .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Retirement earnings rose 24% YoY to $261M on OneAmerica and higher alt income; TTM net revenue +14.9% and TTM margin 39.8% vs 37.9% prior year, with client assets up 29% to $785B .
  • Investment Management organic growth with $3.9B net inflows in Q3 and TTM margin 28.5% vs 26.3% prior year; strong flows across insurance and international retail channels .
  • Management tone: “nearly 30% growth in adjusted operating EPS” and “robust free cash flow,” positioning to “consistently return capital” and invest for long-term growth ; CFO highlighted excess capital generation >$200M in Q3 and expectation to exceed $700M for FY 2025 .

What Went Wrong

  • Corporate losses widened to $(80)M (vs $(59)M) on higher performance-based comp accruals; signals expense pressure from strong year-to-date performance .
  • Employee Benefits TTM margin fell to 6.0% (from 16.6%) reflecting negative Stop Loss development in prior year; in-force premiums declined 5%, as management emphasized margin over growth .
  • Stop Loss remains a watch item: continued higher frequency (cancer, younger ages) and severity (cell/gene therapies); Q4 credibility for Jan-25 cohort will double, potentially affecting ultimate loss ratios (1% LR change ≈ $12M) .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Total Revenues ($USD Billions)$1.956 $1.969 $1.981 $2.128
Net Income to Common ($USD Millions)$98 $139 $162 $176
Diluted EPS (GAAP, $)$0.98 $1.42 $1.66 $1.80
Adjusted Operating EPS (Diluted, $)$1.90 $2.00 $2.46 $2.45

Results vs estimates (S&P Global):

MetricConsensus (Q3 2025)Actual (Q3 2025)Surprise
Adjusted Operating EPS ($)2.25*2.45 +0.20*
Total Revenues ($USD Billions)2.006*2.128 +0.122*

Segment adjusted operating earnings (before income taxes):

Segment ($USD Millions)Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Retirement207 235 261
Investment Management41 51 62
Employee Benefits46 69 47
Corporate(62) (67) (80)
Consolidated232 289 290

Segment margins (TTM Adjusted Operating Margin %, directional trajectory):

SegmentSep 30, 2024Jun 30, 2025Sep 30, 2025
Retirement37.9% 39.3% 39.8%
Investment Management26.3% 28.0% 28.5%
Employee Benefits16.6% 3.7% 6.0%

Key KPIs:

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Retirement Total Client Assets ($USD Millions)694,180 757,244 784,821
Investment Mgmt Total AUM ($USD Millions)344,978 359,589 366,300
IM Net Inflows ($USD Millions)7,683 1,567 3,900
Employee Benefits Total Aggregate Loss Ratio (Quarter)72.0% 70.7% 73.4%
Stop Loss Loss Ratio (Quarter)75.0% 80.3% 83.6%

Non-GAAP reconciliation highlights (Q3 2025):

  • Adjusted operating EPS excludes net investment losses ($0.13), businesses exited ($0.43), and other adjustments ($0.10), reconciling GAAP diluted EPS of $1.80 to adjusted $2.45 .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Dividend per common shareQ4 2025$0.45 $0.47 Raised
Share repurchase authorizationThrough 2026Expires 12/31/2025 Extended to 12/31/2026 Extended
Capital returns (dividends + buybacks)FY 2026Not specified$100–$150M per quarter, measured/consistent New framework
Retirement marginFY 2026Margins above long-term targets Return to midpoint of 35–39% target range Normalized lower (investing)
Wealth Management investmentFY 2026Not specifiedUp to ~$75M (back-half weighted), two-thirds GAAP New investment plan
Q4 2025 repurchasesQ4 2025$80M ASR delivered in Q3 Expect additional $100M repurchases in Q4 Continued repurchases

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2/Q1 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
OneAmerica integration & DC flowsRetirement TTM margin rising; client assets to $757B; announced return to segment names and strong recordkeeping wins Ahead of expected revenue/earnings contribution; ~$30B YTD organic DC net inflows; surrender rates in line Positive integration, strong flows
Wealth Management buildSales growth, advisor expansion; Q1 described commercial momentum; strategic investments ongoing ~20% YoY sales; ~500 advisors, +100 by year-end; WealthPath launched; up to $75M 2026 investment Scaling investment
Stop Loss claimsPrior-year adverse development weighed margins; improving pricing/risk selection Frequency/severity themes persist; Q4 credibility doubles; disciplined underwriting; Group Life favorable Stabilizing, watch Q4
Investment Management flows$1.8B Q2 net inflows; diversified channels $3.9B Q3 net inflows; strong insurance mandates; flows likely more muted in Q4 Sustained momentum
Product road mapStrategic adjacencies; expansion initiatives Actively managed ETFs later this year; Blue Owl partnership (DC private strategies; target date by Q2 2026) Pipeline building
Capital frameworkQ2 excess capital ~0.2B; P-Caps facility for flexibility >$0.2B Q3 excess; 2026 $100–$150M quarterly capital returns; dividend raised Strong, consistent

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “Voya delivered nearly 30% growth in adjusted operating EPS…strong balance sheet and robust free cash flow…consistently returning capital to our shareholders.”
  • CFO: “We generated adjusted operating earnings of $2.45 per share…excess capital generation of over $200 million…we expect to repurchase another $100 million in the fourth quarter.”
  • CEO on Wealth: “This is already a significant business…total client assets reaching approximately $35 billion…now is the time to scale this business…launching WealthPath.”
  • CFO on Stop Loss: “Reserve levels are firming up for 2024…claims experience consistent with our reserve levels…a 1% change in loss ratio is approximately $12 million.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Wealth Management investment: Up to ~$75M in 2026 (two-thirds GAAP), back-half weighted; hiring advisors shortens break-even; organic strategy (no roll-ups) .
  • Stop Loss trajectory: Jan-25 cohort showing modestly better claims vs Jan-24 to date; credibility doubles in Q4; pricing/risk selection actions continue .
  • Corporate expenses: Higher incentive accruals tied to strong performance; expect normalization with next year’s targets .
  • Inorganic focus: Targeted retirement roll-ups; OneAmerica accretive and linked to Wealth/IM synergies; retention rates high .
  • Product/platform: Actively managed ETFs, Blue Owl DC solutions (private credit, alt credit, non-traded REIT CITs), and target date products by Q2 2026; regulatory clarity awaited .

Estimates Context

  • VOYA beat Q3 2025 consensus on EPS and revenue: adjusted operating EPS $2.45 vs ~$2.25* and revenue $2.13B vs ~$2.01B*. Future quarterly EPS consensus is ~$2.12 (Q4 2025), ~$2.23 (Q1 2026), ~$2.63 (Q2 2026). Values retrieved from S&P Global.
MetricQ3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)2.25*2.12*2.23*2.63*
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Billions)2.006*1.979*2.011*2.010*
Actual Primary EPS ($)2.45 ———
Actual Revenue ($USD Billions)2.128 ———
EPS # of Estimates12*11*10*10*
Revenue # of Estimates4*5*3*3*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Broad-based beat with visible capital return: dividend raised to $0.47 and buyback extended through 2026; 2026 quarterly capital return guided at $100–$150M .
  • Retirement momentum durable: OneAmerica accretive, DC net inflows strong, and TTM margins near 40%; watch planned margin normalization in 2026 amid Wealth investments .
  • Investment Management flows healthy and diversified, underpinned by strong performance; near-term flows may moderate in Q4 after strong realizations .
  • Employee Benefits improving but still sensitive: underwriting discipline and pricing good, yet Stop Loss severity/frequency trends persist; Q4 credibility is key .
  • Execution checklist: deliver WealthPath/advisor hiring, launch active ETFs, progress Blue Owl DC offerings (target date Q2 2026), and scale leave management on 1/1/2026 .
  • Valuation lens: excess capital generation and clear capital framework provide downside support; EPS cadence looks constructive vs consensus into 2026*. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Risk monitor: claims trend in Stop Loss, macro/rates impact on spread income and fee flows, and expense discipline (corporate accruals) .

Disclaimer: Consensus estimates marked with an asterisk are values retrieved from S&P Global.*